The second round of the snap legislative elections will take place this Sunday July 7th. Current projections expect the Rassemblement National (RN) to come first, but to fall short of a clear majority in the Assemblée Nationale (see chart below). The RN has said that it will not take part in the cabinet or put forward a prime minister if it does not secure a majority. This projected outcome does not resolve president Emmanuel Macron’s quandary. His grouping Ensemble will likely come third, as it did in the first round, and the president’s support in the chamber will be smaller than it was before he dissolved the Assemblée in late May.
The wildcard is how the leftist Nouveau Front Populaire will perform. It got 28% of the vote in the first round, behind the RN’s 34% but ahead of Ensemble’s 22%. The surprise will be if the focus on defeating the RN inadvertently empowered the left and gave it a much larger number of deputés than before dissolution.
