The Wednesday Briefs 174 - 28 June 2023

THIS WEEK: Russian Enigma; Hubris + Money = Implosion; Passive Funds and 0DTE Options; End of Student Loan Holiday; The 1987 Analogue; The Whisperer; S&P Sectors Update.

RUSSIAN ENIGMA

Without claiming great expertise about Russia, we can parse the Wagner Group's action of last weekend and try to answer the following questions: Why did it happen? Why was it aborted? What does it mean? Can it happen elsewhere?

Why did it happen: That may be the easy part. There is a huge amount of discontent in Russia about the conduct of the war, and about the war itself. Yevgeny Prigozhin, leader of the Wagner Group, had been critical of the military leadership, and had demanded the removal of Sergei Shoigu and Valery Gerasimov, respectively Minister of Defense and Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces. But the trigger for the march on Moscow was a call by the Russian government for Wagner fighters to sign contracts with the Ministry of Defense with a deadline of July 1st. Prigozhin had been defiant of this order because it curtaile…