The Wednesday Letter #220 - 5/15/2024

This Week: Vice-Presidential Choices; October Surprises; Roaring Kitty and Meme Stock Valuations; AI for Investors.

VICE-PRESIDENTIAL CHOICES

Barring last minute surprises, we already known the two parties’ nominees for president: President Biden and former president Trump. Among third party candidates, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK) has secured enough signatures to be on the ballot in several states but it is not certain that he will qualify in all fifty. His odds of winning are considered poor and lower than those of California governor Gavin Newsom who is not even a declared candidate. But as with any well-known third party candidate, RFK’s presence could sway the outcome by syphoning more votes from Biden or from Trump. There is no consensus on whether he will take more votes from Biden or from Trump.

However, we do not know yet the vice-presidential nominees. Vice-President Kamala Harris has had an unremarkable first term but her popularity is no worse than that of Biden himself. Her approval rating of 38.2% is nearly identical to Biden’s 38.3% but is worse than recent VP’s (see charts below). Beca…