Twelve Charts This Week - 6/28/2024

BONUS

In hindsight, yesterday’s debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump looks like a setup, a final exam for Biden to show that his advanced age is not an impediment to a possible second term. Why else, for example, was it scheduled this early, before either man was nominated? The reaction on all channels, after the debate, was thick and quasi-unanimous that Biden did not pass this test. CNN, usually sympathetic to the president, reported within minutes that Democrats were in a panic after seeing the president’s performance. All present on the set agreed that there was good reason to feel panic. A vote for Biden must now be considered a vote for a president Kamala Harris, since the president, if he wins, is unlikely to finish his term. In our view, Biden will either withdraw or replace Harris with governor Gavin Newsom of California. If he withdraws, Newsom is the most probable DEMOCRAT NOMINEE FOR PRESIDENT. The prediction market PredictIt was showing a big jump in Newsom’s odds aft…