Twelve Charts This Week - 7/5/2024
Twelve Charts This Week - 7/5/2024
1
Yesterday, LABOUR WON THE UK ELECTION IN A LANDSLIDE, as was expected. On the latest count, Labour will have 412 seats in the 650-seat House of Commons and the Conservatives will only have 121, the lowest in history. Labour leader Keir Starmer will be the new prime minister. The result is a clear disaster for the Tories, for whom the following chart is cold comfort but is nonetheless worth highlighting. The median margin of victory for all seats was small compared to that in previous elections. Each dot in the chart represents a different seat and the number of marginal (additional vs. the opponent) votes that secured victory. The median in 2024 was about 6,700 vs. 11,200 in 2019. The same is illustrated in a different way in the second chart below. The margin of victory for the median Labour winner has fallen 34%, but it has fallen 75% for the median conservative winner. (via @TomHCalver)
🚨 Could be impacted by this: UK politics, UK-US relations, UK-EU relations, UK economy, immigration policy, Ukraine war.
2
The new government has a lot on its plate, in its task to reboot the UK economy and to redefine or confirm Britain’s position on a host of foreign policy issues. Among the challenges awaiting Starmer are the UK’s decade long stagnation in wages, and its faltering productivity and GDP growth. The new government will also have to find a way to FIX THE NATIONAL HEALTH SERVICE, that has deteriorated in the years since covid. As the chart shows, waiting times have risen on average in all cases, for cancer patients, and even for accident & emergency visits. The NHS is looking increasingly like the picture painted by its critics: long wait periods and sub-optimal outcomes. (via @WaltHickey)
🚨 Could be impacted by this: UK politics, UK health services, life expectancy, UK inflation.
